2 interdependent practices in forecasting the future.
“All of which is to say that I'm not sure what 2010 will look like, but I'm sure that it will be very little like we expect, so we should plan accordingly.” -- memo from Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld to President George W. Bush (2001apr12). Rumsfeld had conveyed a message originally written by Lin Wells: "Thoughts for the 2001 Quadrennial Defense Review".
It was about a week ago that I first read this, and since then I can’t dislodge it from my mind. Whatever you think of former Secretary Rumsfeld, it’s hard to disagree with the truth that in 10 years (roughly 2001 to 2010), it’s hard to say what the world will look like. Think back to the internet, to 9/11, to iPhones, to electric cars, to the Arab Spring, to Covid19, to Ukraine-Russia, to so many events! The world changes in sometimes dramatic steps. I don’t have a magic ball, and so here are two interdependent practices I suggest when forecasting the future, whether you are an individual or the leader of a Team:
1. Set up innovation processes. Old ways will continue to decay, and funerals will continue to occur for people, ideas, businesses, even nations. We know this from history. And so generating new ideas, processes, lifestyles, and philosophies -- and then TESTING them -- will help you create new worlds before the old ones decay, and they’ll help you adapt faster to new realities. There are many processes and habits that we can start today, and now is the time to prepare for the next 10 years.
2. Recognize and account for “black swan” risks. These are rare events with huge consequences, that most people turn a blind eye to. What if my company (or university) dissolves? What if my health (or someone’s in my family) takes a bad turn, including an unexpected injury or illness or death? What if my business drops 80% … or grows 500%? What if I have a house fire? What if my best friends hear insane gossip about me (true or not) and they believe it? Each of these could have devastating consequences, perhaps for better but more often for worse. It’s hard to prepare for all possible black swan risks, which leads us back to #1. If we have a process for accepting (or seeking out or predicting) new realities, we can adapt quickly and create a new life before the change ruins us.
There’s no better day to start than today!
