Would you take this bet?

“Would you take this bet?”

Darrell Velegol, PhD

2023dec27

I recently heard someone say, “If a bet has a 10% chance of winning 100:1, I’d take that bet every time!” Is this a smart thing to do? What would YOU do?

In short, yes take the bet, but don’t “put too many eggs in one basket”. Here’s what I would do: I’d take the bet every time, but put only 9.1% of my available bankroll into the bet.

Want to know how I quantified this, and how YOU can dramatically increase your returns on innovation (while keeping risk low) by placing your innovation bets better? See my 2021 paper “Gambling on Innovation” at https://www.linkedin.com/smart-links/AQGNZoNL8sivaA. Or Message me on LinkedIn.