4 numbers for placing innovation bets.

“4 numbers for placing innovation bets”

Darrell Velegol, PhD

2024mar27

What must we know to place our innovation bets? We can think of hundreds of factors, but in the end, all information must be put into 4 key numbers: ptab.

p = Probability. What is your probability of your innovation “winning”?

t = Time. How much time will it take from now until you’re earning revenue?

a = Adversity. If you lose, what will be your loss?

b = Benefit. If you win, what will be your profit?

If I know these 4 numbers for your projects -- whether it’s 5 projects, 100 projects, or 150 projects -- I can guide your precise allocation to each project optimally, and increase your IRR by 5-20% or more. If you don’t have those numbers, you might truly be gambling your innovation dollars instead of investing, and I can help you estimate them quickly. Any estimate (backed by real information) is better than none.

If this post makes you wonder where you stand, email me (darrell@knowlecular.com) and let’s set up a 15 min meeting. I’d love to learn your company’s nuances and constraints, and see how we can work together.